Hillary at Halftime

I remember this classic question from one of my early science classes:  What happens if an irresistible force hits an immovable object?  At just past halftime of the 2016 presidential race, we have a similar question:  if we have two presidential candidates who can’t possibly win running against each other, who will win?HillaryClinton

In an earlier post I stuck my neck out and said that Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee for president.  My reasoning was that with Hillary Clinton facing a possible indictment, surely the Democrats would have a backup candidate.  I at least was partially wrong as there is no backup candidate.  We still need to see if Hillary will be indicted or if at least the FBI will recommend indictment.  Quite frankly, even if she is indicted I would expect that she will not withdraw.

Hillary laughs at the thought she might be indicted and her defenders all scoff and say there is nothing there.  I would think that the FBI would not devote months and dozens  of investigators if nothing was there.  Right now I don’t want to re-argue the email situation.  This is about so much more than the emails.

There is so much that most people don’t know about Hillary Clinton.  Here is a bit.

The Clinton-Russia Uranium Deal

In early 2015 Peter Schweizer published a book tiled “Clinton Cash”  This book outlined many instances where countries and companies with key requests before Hillary Clinton’s  state department would pay Bill Clinton up to a million dollars in speaking fees and at the same time would donate many millions of dollars to the Clinton Foundation. The state department would then approve whatever the “donor” wanted.  Prior to his publication, Schweizer shared his research with the New York Times about one of these deals where the Russians gained control over 25% of the United States uranium.  The New York Times published this front page story on April 23, 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html?_r=0

Having published this story, the New York Times did not follow up.  Nobody, to my knowledge, has ever asked Hillary Clinton about this or any of the many other instances where the Clinton’s profited despite a strong conflict of interest.  Hardly anybody knows about all of these deals where the Clinton’s traded influence for money.

Hillary’s Persecution of Bill Clinton’s Women

Most people also don’t know how Hillary Clinton led the “bimbo” squad, a team designed to make the life of any woman who accused Bill Clinton of sexual improprieties a living hell.  Here is a New York Times story on this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/us/politics/90s-scandals-threaten-to-erode-hillary-clintons-strength-with-women.html

Hillary then had the audacity during this campaign to tweet the following “Every survivor of sexual assault deserves to be heard, believed, and supported.

In this post Bill Cosby era, many who support Hillary as a champion of women will be disgusted by Hillary’s persecution of her husband’s victims.

Clinton vs. Trump

Currently 65% of those polled have a negative opinion of Donald Trump and 55% have a negative opinion of Hillary Clinton.  Over 70% of women have a negative opinion of Trump.  With high negatives like these, Trump shouldn’t have a chance of winning the presidency.  Against Hillary Clinton, however, he may have a chance.

There are many people who, to quote Bernie Sanders,  “don’t give a damn” about Hillary’s emails.  They couldn’t care if it was revealed that the nuclear launch codes were in her email.  They don’t care what happened in Benghazi.  They don’t care if she is caught in lie after lie.  They support her because they like her politics and they want a woman in the White House.

These supporters believe she is a champion of the poor.  They don’t know that the Clintons have amassed a fortune of, according to Fortune Magazine, over $100 million.  As Hillary said they were broke when they left the White House, much of this can be traced to her influence peddling.  They believe she fights for women.  They don’t know how she abused women who spoke out against her husband.  They support her because they don’t know.

Donald Trump has proven himself to be an exceptionally good attack dog.  He will attack “Crooked Hillary”, to use his new term for her.  He will attack her relentlessly.  People will learn about Hillary’s scandals that they do care about.   If Trump can drive Clinton’s negatives to be even higher than his, he might just win.

Hillary Clinton might be the only candidate that Donald Trump can beat.  If Clinton were to be indicted and withdraw and were to be replaced by Joe Biden or almost any other less tainted Democrat, his negatives would most likely stop him from winning.   Possibly the best thing that could happen for the Democrats would be for Clinton to be indicted and withdraw.   As I said though, even if she is indicted, I doubt she would withdraw.

I am not saying that Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton.  I am saying that those who think that he doesn’t have a chance don’t have any idea what will be coming.

 

 

Election 2016 – Halftime Notes on the Republicans

The 2016 presidential election is now basically at half-time with only the Wisconsin primary during a four week period.  Here are some basic thoughts on the Republican candidates and the Republican race in general.  I will have another post on the Democrats

Donald Trump

In my last post I wrote on the good and the bad of Donald Trump.  I stated some things I liked and some things I didn’t like.  In summary, I said that whenever I started to think he might be a good choice, he would say something that made me cringe and drove me away.

Up through the March 15 Super Tuesday 2 primaries, one could maktrump goode an argument that his attention-gathering statements were political brilliance.  If he had been ordinary, he would never have been taken seriously.  His blunt, non politically-correct statements drove him to prominence and to be the GOP front-runner.  Mission accomplished.  He was on the path to cruise to the nomination.  He said he could act very presidential.  It was the time to be presidential, the time to work on uniting the party around him and to reduce his negatives with a thought towards the general election.

Instead, he needlessly made abusive, divisive statements and has shown both a lack of thought on key issues and a total lack of self-control.  The post March 15 barrage started with another needless tweet out of the blue attacking Megyn Kelly.  He tweeted an awful picture of Heidi Cruz.  With polls saying 70% of women have a negative impression of him, how could he possibly think that these tweets would help him become the next president?

His statement saying women should be punished for abortions managed to alienate everybody, both pro-choice and pro-life.  It is obvious why the pro-choice would be alienated.  The pro-life movement has consistently stated it is not out to hurt the women.  Trump’s statement will be used against them for years.  Trump acted like someone who was not really pro-life, needed to act pro-life to get the nomination, and was spouting off what he thought was the pro-life position without understanding it.  He then went on to make a series of jumbled and thoughtless positions on foreign policy.

In fairness, many of the attacks on Trump say he is racist and sexist.  He is not racist or sexist.  He has taken controversial stands but there are reasons for his stands.  In his entire career, he has given major opportunities to minorities and women.  In the eighties, he put a woman in charge of constructing Trump Tower.  At that time very few women were prominent in construction.  No he is not racist or sexist.  He is just crude and offensive in general.

In short, in these last few weeks he has made so many cringe-worthy statements that I think he can not recover.

Ted Cruz

ted cruzTed Cruz’s biggest weakness is that he is rigid, uncompromising, refuses to work with others, so his colleagues hate him.  His greatest strength is that he stands staunchly behind his principles and doesn’t cave to pressure so his colleagues hate him.  His biggest strength and his biggest weakness are the same thing.

Perfect is the enemy of better.  In leading the effort to shut down the government to be perfect, he made things worse.  Trying to be perfect isn’t good.   Unless of course, you can achieve it.

I’ve heard people say Cruz is stupid.  Cruz is brilliant.  The well-known liberal Harvard professor Alan Dershowitz told Piers Morgan on CNN in 2013 that Cruz was one of the most intelligent students he ever taught:

One of the sharpest students I had . . . I’ve had 10,000 students over my 50 years at Harvard . . . he has to qualify among the brightest of the students.

Cruz was not my first choice.  I liked Walker.  I liked Fiorina.  I voted for Cruz in the primary.  Right now I think that Cruz, like Obi-wan Kenobi, is our only hope.

 

John Kasich

John Kasich has an outstanding record of accomplishment both in congress and as governor of Ohio.  If experience was the main factor in this campaign, he would easily be the nominee.  Kasich has failed as a candidate for two reasons.  First, he doesn’t inspire the Republican electorate.  Second, he cites many liberal positions,such as blanket amnesty, and he seems to eager to compromise with Democrats at a time when Republicans think we compromise too much.  His statement that he would consider a Democrat as vice president says all that you need to know here.john kasich

Kasich has no chance of winning the nomination and his continued presence in the race takes codes away from Cruz and helps Trump.  Unless Kasich has some secret deal with Trump, there is no reason for Kasich to still be in this race.  If Trump wins the nomination, he might have Kasich to thank.

Marco Rubio

Rubio is out of the race now.  His candidacy collapsed when he decided to make Trump-like comments about Trump.  It reminded me of the old like that you should never mud-wrestle with a pig.  You will just get dirty and the pig will like it.

Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or anybody else

There has been talk about the Republican establishment hijacking the convention and putting in Romney, Ryan, or another establishment candidate.  If this happened both the Trump and Cruz supporters would be furious.  I think that the Democrats could run Hillary from jail and she would still win.   If the Republican establishment tries to hijack the process, it will be a total disaster.  I really think that, unless Hillary is indicted, that the one Republican hope is to get behind Ted Cruz and help him win the nomination in a fair process.